(UltimateFootballBlog.com)
Jeremy Lambert: One week after my triumphant Pro Bowl victory, I'm back to defeat Steve Cook in the Super Bowl. This year's Super Bowl features two evenly matched teams and everyone expects it to be the Game of the Century. Just like last year's Super Bowl.
In one corner, we have the defending champions, ready to repeat and have us wondering if there is dynasty potential. In the other corner, we have the three time champs, making their sixth Super Bowl appearance since 2001, possibly wrapping up their dynasty.
I'll be representing the proven challengers while Cook will be on the side of the defending champs.
Before we talk about the actual game, we of course have to address the two biggest stories of the week. What do we make of the Patriots probably deflating footballs against the Indianapolis Colts and do we care that Marshawn Lynch hates the media?
Steve Cook: Was I surprised that the Patriots would deflate footballs or do anything else that may not be on the side of the rulebook in order to take care of the Colts? Of course not. Do I think they're the only team that would do such a thing? Of course not. There are two famous sporting philosophies that come to mind when discussing Ballghazi: "If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying", and "Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat." NFL teams & players are always looking for an edge, and if there's a little something they can do that they think they can get away with, they're going to do it. "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." There, another sports philosophical point for you. Do I think the Patriots needed to do anything illegal to beat the Colts? Of course not. But why leave it to chance?
The problem they seem to have run into is that other people were on to them. You have to figure that this wasn't the first time this happened. John Harbaugh suspected something & mentioned it to Chuck Pagano. That's why these advantages are always temporary. Everybody talks. Everything's on film. They find the tape of the ballboy taking the balls into the bathroom. The Patriots will deny because why the hell would they admit it? Tom Brady's process was the same it always was. He & Bill Belichick don't personally inflate or deflate the balls! They have people to do that, and they've been doing it for so long that they don't need to be told! I'm not making a huge deal out of it because I think every team's skirting around the rules in some form or fashion, but the NFL will have to act on this. They can't justify leaving the Patriots alone to break the rules when they're fining every player under the sun for ridiculous rule violations, or they're changing suspensions willy-nilly because the public calls bullshit.
The Lynch stuff plays into this. This guy's been getting fined all season for the egregious sin of not speaking to the media. One of the ironic parts of all of this is that refusing to speak to the media, or saying "I'm just here so I don't get fined." or "I'm thankful." in response to every question makes Marshawn Lynch infinitely more interesting of a personality than he would be otherwise. People want to hear him talk! If he was just another athlete giving generic soundbites that we hear from every other athlete, we'd still care about Marshawn Lynch because he's a really good running back, but he'd be just another really good running back. No different from DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell or anybody else at the top of the NFL rushing statistics. Pulling this whole act focuses attention on Marshawn Lynch, which is good for his business. Whenever he talks will more than likely be a letdown at this point.
And honestly, it's not like the media's ever asking Lynch about anything bad. If he was in Adrian Peterson's or Ray Rice's shoes I'd totally understand not wanting to talk to people, but the only thing we know that he does is run over people on the football field. Apparently Lynch is a very humble guy and doesn't want to make things about him, but when you're doing things like "I'm just here so I don't get fined.", that kinda makes things about you. If he really wanted to be left alone he'd give those generic answers that every other athlete gives, and the reporters would all move on down to Richard Sherman's locker to get some usable quotes. I don't care about Marshawn Lynch hating the media, but he's used that hatred to get over.
JL: Here's why I think the Patriots deflating footballs is a non-story: they were always going to beat the Colts. They've dominated the Colts since Andrew Luck has been the QB, outscoring them 144-66 in the three games prior to the AFC Championship. That's an average of 48 points per game. How many points did they score against the Colts with deflated footballs? 45. SO THEY ACTUALLY LEFT THREE POINTS ON THE BOARD!
We all know that this is a bigger story than it should be because it's the Patriots and they have a history of cheating with Spygate. Not only that, but people just don't like Bill Belichick (probably because he keeps winning) or Tom Brady (probably because he keeps winning and has a hot wife). If this were the Broncos, who could've actually used some deflated footballs against the Colts, no one would dare accuse Peyton Manning of such tactics and we'd all figure that John Fox is just too incompetent to do such a thing.
I don't know if this whole thing will motivate the Patriots or exhaust them come Sunday. Since I'm backing them, I'll say they'll use it as motivation. They'll be out to prove just how stupid this whole thing is by going right at Seattle and taking their title.
As for Marshawn Lynch, I actually blame the NFL and their dumb media rules for this whole thing. The guy obviously doesn't want to talk to the media, so why force it? I don't think anyone should be forced to talk to the media if they don't want to. The Seahawks is paying Lynch $7.5 million a season. They didn't pay a single dollar of that $7.5 million to him because of how he handles the media. They pay him to run the football, and he does that really well.
The NFL threatened to fine Lynch $500,000 for missing media day. Ndamukong Suh got fined $70,000 for stepping on Aaron Rodgers. Please tell me which of those actions are worse. You can't force these guys to talk to the media and then get upset when they give you a bunch of non-answers. Some players are great with the media and they embrace it. Other players just want to play football. Why is that such a bad thing?
Also, some of the blame has to be on the media. You know he's not going to give you a good answer. So just don't bother talking to him. Go to someone who will say, "in order to win, we need to play hard and not mistakes" and just leave Marshawn alone. But they keep feeding into the beast and then get upset when he does the same shtick.
SC: I totally agree with the assertion that the NFL's fine policies are completely ridiculous & out of touch with what really matters. There's no way people should be fined more for missing media day than for targeting other players' injuries. I don't blame the media, though. Their job is to report on what their audience wants to hear about. As much as people like to bitch & moan about what ESPN covers, and I do a lot of that bitching & moaning too, ESPN & all the other sports media outlets focus their attention on what gets ratings. The NFL gets the biggest ratings, creates the most discussion, and generates the most interest by far. Hell, the reason we can write this column & actually get a handful of clicks on it is because some people will read anything about football. The media continues to ask Marshawn Lynch questions because their viewers, as much as some of them might deny it & claim to care about Marshawn's right to exist without questions or whatever, want to see what he does next. If they don't provide that to their viewers, their ratings will go down & they will be looking for other employment. So I can't jump on the "BLAME THE MEDIA" bandwagon that Lynch & his supporters are on.
And hell, I don't blame the NFL for doing things to enable the media more access & making it easier for them to do their jobs. Part of the reason that the NFL is the big dog in town is that they let fans into the game. Those old NFL Films videos that took you inside the locker rooms & on the field that ESPN would run during weekday afternoons in the 80s & 90s were great TV viewing for me during snow days & rainy days during summer vacation, and I wasn't the only one. Fans, especially younger fans that aren't bitter & jaded & don't realize that all athletes basically say the same things & most of them have very little of significance to say that doesn't involve football, love hearing from their favorite players. It helps them connect with them in a way they couldn't do before. A lot of players have taken it into their own hands now & talk with fans via the social media, and that's awesome. It helps generate more interest in the players, in their teams, and in the league, which is why the NFL takes this stuff so seriously.
You can say the Seattle Seahawks don't pay Marshawn Lynch to talk to the media, and yes that's not the most important part of the job. But when you're one of the top players in the biggest sport in America, you're a public figure. People are going to want to hear from you. Media will try to get your comments on things because that's their job. You can pull the silent act if you want, and frankly I wouldn't impose punishment on people that don't wanna talk if I was running the league. But I'll never understand what's so hard about answering questions like "How do you feel about that win?" or "What happened in the third quarter?". It's not like they're getting asked about ISIS executing innocent people or the shrinking middle class or things that actually matter. It's simple stuff. Hell, on Super Bowl Media Day they're asking who your favorite cartoon character is or which actress you'd like to bang. Me, I like the Tasmanian Devil & I'd like to bang Debby Ryan. See, that wasn't so hard!
The other main Marshawn Lynch story this week is that he might get fined for wearing a hat that he's marketing. And that's another one of those rules that's stupid but has been around forever & it's not like people don't know about it. I remember when Jon Kitna got fined for wearing a hat with a cross on it. If they're going to fine somebody for supporting Jesus they'll fine anybody, I don't know why players don't understand that by now. Probably because that pesky media's always telling them how great they are. There's a certain level of arrogance there, which is often in full display in New England. You can add that in with "winning" on the list of the reasons people don't like Bill Belichick. You can't deny he's a smug SOB. And really, people don't like Tom Brady because he has a hot wife? Find me an NFL QB that doesn't have a hot wife/girlfriend/mistress.
Anyway, there is a game to discuss and apparently we've chosen different teams. I chose the Seahawks at the beginning of the season & I'm sticking with them. I'll go into further detail after I get a drink & you talk about the Patriots.
JL: I won't deny that Brady and Belichick are a couple of smug individuals, but that comes with winning. Show me a winner that isn't smug, and I'll show you a loser. And sure, all NFL QBs have a hot significant other, but none of them get the attention that Gisele gets.
Here is what Marshawn is going to do next: give a 5-10 word answer and repeat it for however long he's obligated to repeat for. It's actually sad that he garners as much attention as he does. I actually agree with you that by trying to put the attention on his team by giving a bunch of non-answers, he continues to put the attention on himself. I blame social media for all this. It's dumb. #socialmediaisdumb. Make sure to follow me on twitter (@jeremylambert88) and help get that hashtag trending.
Anyway, there is a football game to be played.
Last year, I fully admit that I thought the Broncos would win and I didn't think it would be all that competitive. I was half right. This year I'm going with the Patriots and I do think it will be competitive. If I'm half right again, I'll either get bragging rights or enjoy a good game.
Everyone is talking about the Seattle defense, and rightfully so. They have a cool nickname and were the top defense in the league this year. But the Patriots defense has gone under the radar. After a dismal showing in week four against the Chiefs, the Patriots defense got their act together. They only gave up 18 points per game in their final 12 games, allowing only four 300 yard passers (Manning, Rodgers, Tannehill, Luck) and two 100 yard rushers (Forte and Ivory). It took 38+ passes for all four of those quarterbacks to go over 300 yards. The last time Russell Wilson threw 38 passes or more? December 28, 2010 against West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl.
The Patriots are going to force Wilson to beat them. Usually a mistake free quarterback, Wilson turned the ball over five times in the NFC Title game against the Packers. I wouldn't expect him to give the Pats that many gifts, but two might be enough. The Seahawks don't have a great receiving core. They are very reliant on Lynch pounding out yards and play action passes. Darrelle Revis is going to blanket Doug Baldwin while the defensive line and linebackers prevent Lynch from breaking one off. That's easier said than done, but Lynch was held under 100 yards by Carolina and St. Louis. Statistically, New England has a better run defense than both of those squads.
Seattle's defense might be on the cover of Sports Illustrated (isn't that a guaranteed loss?) but New England's defense will be the group to look out for.
Also, what are you drinking?
SC: I was trying to get into the spirit for this column and find something Seattle-based to drink. Turns out that Redhook is based in Seattle, so I'm tipping back an Audible Ale during this part of the column.
The Patriots defense has been very good this season, no doubt. But there's a reason they're under the radar while the Seahawk defense is being compared to some of the great defenses of all time...Seattle's just better. They gave up the least overall yards this season, allowing the least passing yards & third-least rushing yards. They gave up the least points per game. New England had a top ten rushing defense, which is why your assertion that Beast Mode will be hindered has some merit (Lynch might not have his best game of the year, but you know he's going to go off for at least one huge run like he always does), but were middle of the road in passing defense despite having the second best cornerback in the National Football League. Seattle has the best, in case you were wondering.
No, the Seahawks are not known for passing the football. Doug Baldwin is the only receiver I can name off the top of my head. There's Ricardo Lockette, who comes to mind because of his name but not much else. Jermaine Kearse catches one out of six passes thrown his way against Green Bay, and most of the rest of them get picked off. It's not an ideal situation. But somehow, Russell Wilson seems to make this work. You saw him have an absolutely horrendous game against Green Bay, probably the worst game of his career. But at the end of the game he was driving the team down the field & making plays like nothing had ever changed. They're different players in a lot of ways, but Wilson is a lot like Brady in that they both just seem to have that winning edge about them. Wilson doesn't have a lot of help at WR, and Brady hasn't had it for most of his career, but they use what they have & do enough to get it done.
Wilson also has a great defense to bail him out. As great as Tom Brady is, has been & will be, he hasn't faced a lot of secondaries like the Legion of Boom. We remember what happened the last time they played, back in 2012. It was the first time a lot of us learned about Richard Sherman, as he got up in Brady's face after the game & asked if he was mad. People wondered who the hell he thought he was doing that at the time, but we found out soon enough. Rob Gronkowski will be seeing plenty of Kam Chancellor, and as great a baller as Gonk is that's just not a great time for anybody. Even Gonk.
I get the feeling it'll be a close game. It won't be 43-8 because Brady's not going to lay an egg like Peyton did last year. It'll be low-scoring, close until the end, but based on all the hype surrounding the game & how this season's been playing out, wouldn't it be great booking for the game to be decided by a big Beast Mode run? I'm thinking 24-21 Seattle. Then we'll be talking about Seattle being a sure-fire dynasty & the New England Era finally being at an end.
JL: I wouldn't put too much stock into the actual 2012 game. However, I would put stock into Richard Sherman's "you mad bro?" comment after the game. I guarantee you that Brady hasn't forgotten about that (and if he has, he's been reminded 100 times this week) and he's not going to let that happen again.
A lot of quarterbacks are afraid of Sherman, but I'd be shocked if Brady and Belichick didn't go after him. Julian Edleman is the perfect receiver to frustrate Sherman because he can run a lot of short and shifty routes that the San Diego Chargers had success with in their victory over Seattle earlier this season.
Sherman and Earl Thomas are nursing a couple of injuries that could hinder their performance. I don't know why Aaron Rodgers didn't attack Sherman when he was clear that he was playing with one arm for most of the 4th quarter, but he didn't. If Sherman and Thomas aren't 100%, Brady will attack them. And don't forget just how ruthless Belichick is. Would it shock anyone if he lined up Gronkowski against Sherman on a run play and had Gronk give him a nice little shot on the arm?
The Seattle defense kept the Seahawks in the game against the Packers, but part of that was due to Mike McCarthy being afraid. Belichick is a risk taker and he won't be afraid to go for it on fourth-and-one and he won't be afraid to go after Sherman.
Cook's point about "the New England Era finally being at an end" is another reason why I'm backing the Patriots. I think we all know that this is the Patriots last chance. Brady is 37-years-old and is unlikely to finish his career in New England because no mainstay finishes their career in New England. Belichick has already pulled out all the stops during this playoff run. He ran trick plays and check plays against Baltimore. He allegedly deflated footballs against Indy. He might food poison Seattle. Nothing is off the table with Belichick and Brady this Sunday.
SC: That all sounds lovely & wonderful if you're a Patriots fan. Otherwise, you know how dynasties & eras end. In defeat. They pass the torch to the next group. The obvious booking move is to have Seattle to go over. It's not like the Patriots are Mick Foley & people want to see them go out on top. They're Triple H. They lose, beg for a "Thank You Patriots" chant & don't get one.
Here are some of my other Super Bowl predictions!
MVP: Russell Wilson (you know Lynch won't win that vote)
Length of National Anthem: Over 2:01
Best Commercial: The Budweiser one with the dog that people are already gaga over.
Who Will Cris Collinsworth Be a Homer For? Patriots.
Katy Perry Setlist: "Wide Awake", "Firework" & "Roar". And some shit with Lenny Kravitz somewhere in there.
Katy Perry Wardrobe Malfunction? Sadly not.
Will Marshawn Lynch grab his crotch? Yes.
JL: I wonder what Katy Perry thinks of deflated balls.
I'm going with 21-17 Patriots as the final. Gronk wins the MVP because he's friggin Gronk. I don't care about the rest of those prop bets.
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